区域气候情景Delta-DCSI降尺度方法

郝振纯; 李丽; 徐毅

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区域气候情景Delta-DCSI降尺度方法

水利与土木工程 | 更新时间：2023-11-28

- 区域气候情景Delta-DCSI降尺度方法
- Study on Delta-DCSI Downscaling Method of GCM Output
- 工程科学与技术 2009年41卷第5期页码：1-7
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河海大学
  2. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室全球变化与水循环研究中心南京,210098
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金
- DOI：
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版日期：2009，
  
  网络出版日期：2008-11-4，
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郝振纯,李丽,徐毅.区域气候情景Delta-DCSI降尺度方法[J].工程科学与技术,2009,41(5):1-7.

Hao Zhen Chun, 李丽, 徐毅. Study on Delta-DCSI Downscaling Method of GCM Output[J]. Advanced Engineering Sciences, 2009,41(5):1-7.
郝振纯,李丽,徐毅.区域气候情景Delta-DCSI降尺度方法[J].工程科学与技术,2009,41(5):1-7. DOI：

Hao Zhen Chun, 李丽, 徐毅. Study on Delta-DCSI Downscaling Method of GCM Output[J]. Advanced Engineering Sciences, 2009,41(5):1-7. DOI：

摘要

中文摘要: 降尺度方法是利用分辨率较低的GCM输出进行区域气候变化影响研究时必要的尺度转换手段。降水和气温的空间分布对产汇流、蒸散发等水循环要素的模拟结果有很大影响。为增强未来降水和气温情景对区域次网格的空间描述能力，提高区域水资源情景预测的时空分布可信度，提出一种新的考虑空间分布的Delta-DCSI降尺度方法，通过双三次多项式曲面插值来考虑气候要素变化率在GCM大尺度网格内的空间不均匀性。并利用IPCC第四次评估发布的GFDL模式CM2.1在A2情景下的输出结果对Delta方法和Delta-DCSI方法进行了比较分析，结果表明，由于Delta-DCSI方法加强了降水情景变化率的次网格分布描述，在一定程度上保持了GCM情景在空间上的连续性特征，使得到的未来降水和气温情景变化率在空间上分布更合理。

Abstract

Abstract:Downscaling is necessary method of scale transformation in studying impact of climate change on regions with GCM output. Impact of precipitation variation in spatial on some hydrologic processes is prominent

for example

evaportranspiration

runoff generation and concentration

which are interrelated with underlying surface obviously. A new method

Delta-DCSI downscaling method is developed here to improve the ability of future precipitation scenarios to describe its spatial distribution in sub-grids. Its is based on the Delta method

spatial distribution of future precipitation in GCM grids is taken into account with one interpolation method of dualistic cubic surface. That is to say

precipitation of GCM output in each grid is interpolated into each meteorologic station firstly. Then

change of future precipitation relative to mean simulated value of baseline period is calculated in each station. Finally

future precipitation of each station is gotten by adding the change to its observed value in baseline period. Theoretically

spatial distribution of future precipitation by this new method should be more obvious than that gotten from Delta method. Contrasts between them showed that change of future precipitation gotten from the new method is more smooth and reasonable than that of Delta for describing of spatial variation in sub-grids is strengthened and continuity of GCM output is recurred in the new method. Conclusions of future precipitation gotten from different methods showed that the effect of new method is obvious in areas with dense meteorologic stations. And it is very different from that of the Delta method in those areas.

关键词

气候变化，GCM情景，降尺度，Delta法，双三次曲面插值

Keywords

Climate changeGCM scenariosDownscalingDelta methoddualistic cubic surface interpolation

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